Here are my predictions for today’s election results, as I wrote to a friend this morning:

I say that Obama will win, at the least, all the states that Kerry won (=252 electoral votes) plus IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, for a total of 291. Which would look like this (maps created on the WaPo interactive election map):

conservative election prediction
I think he has a good chance of taking OH and ND, which would bring him to 314.

Of the true tossups, MO, NC, FL, IN, GA, MT, I think Obama could win MO, NC, FL, maybe IN, for a total of 378. (He could take either of the others also, GA, MT).

I think the state to watch is GA, where 2 million voters voted early, when the total 2004 turnout was only 3.3 million. A majority of those are new African-American voters. If Obama wins GA, we will probably see a very huge Democratic sweep all across the country.

Bottom line: Obama will gain more than 314 EV, maybe around 350, maybe more.

If he pulled a full sweep of open and toss-up states, consider how changed the political landscape would look from the swaths of red 4 years ago:

clean sweep

We can only dream. We’ll see soon…

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